Spanish cargo export keeps on giving good news pushed by a sudden recovery of international market. Between January and March it grew over a 14,1% to reach the 69.741 million euros, the best quarter of history according to Trade Secretary of State published this tuesday.
The bad news is that despite the record, import have grown even more reaching the 16.5% to 76.940 million euros. This left the goods trade deficit in 7.199 million euros, a 45,6% more than a year before.
To a large extent, the balance deterioration is due to the upturn of the oil prices since the petroleum and derived products have increased a 88,6% in contrast with the last year quarter.
Actually, once the oil is removed, the non energetic scale gets better till March, generating a deficit of 411 millions against the 987 millions from last year equal period.
Economy Minister points out that foreign sales record the best evolution in all EU despite United Kingdom which exports have been propelled a 21% fruit of the pound collapse.
In other hand, the good news is that finally a global market improvement is perceived. Except 2009, exports tend to grow twice as much as the economy.
Since 2012, a slightly decrease has been recorded according to the sum of GDP or worse. Before the rise of global trade was a 5% average now we are seeing 2% rate. 2016 was a particularly concerning year. An economy like the Spanish which had made made big sacrifices to win competitiveness barely grew a 1.7%. this was considered a good record attending to a global slowdown.
The hard won competitiveness served to distance Spain from the global path. To the point that some countries decreases were note down. The crisis of the emergent producers of raw material countries; currency devaluation; wage competition; China’s reorientation towards a domestic consumption; the Brexit and the protective measures which seemed to herald the lowest performing of the commercial exchange.
However, this quarter upturned this reasoning. In the eurozone, sales moved forward a 9.5%. A 4.2% in France, a 8.5 % in Germany, a 10% in Italy and a 9.7% in the EU. Beyond Europe, Japan exports sum up a 8.5%, a 7.3% in USA and a 4.2% in China. An overall improvement can be seen from this figures. Although still it’s question of a one quarter data beneficiated from the statistical rebound, the growth points improvement still bellow to the pre crisis rates.
Economic recovery could be driven away part of the prevailing pessimism about world trade prospects. In the spanish case the improvement in this first quarter has caused that the last twelve months cumulative spanish exports grow a 5.1% against the 1.7% of 2016. In only 3 months a noticed improvement is witnessed. March has been specially amazing with a 16.9% risen. Probably this data from March is due to the fact that the decisions made by the companies between the beginning and the end of the year are materialised in the light of the recovery, is explained by the Economy Minister sources. “This behaviour is framed by the global economy trend, specially the improvement in Asia and Europe. ”, explains Julián Cubero. BBVA Research. The eurozone is the main spanish trade partner and for the first time since the beginning of the crisis each one of the economies that comprise it are growing.
This spanish sales data reveals other big news. In the middle of this disaster, the biggest spanish exports were made with lower prices which means that the sales amount was bigger but in currency the amount wasn’t so much because the prices were lower.
In exchange, this quarter a slightly uptick of the prices, 0.8%, has been recorded. Although it does not suppose something amazing, the data is no longer deflationary and shows a slight capacity to fix prices in a more favorable situation.
By geographic areas, all grow in the quarter. Spanish exports to the EU show an increase of 13.1%; to the euro zone 13.6%; Asia 25.4%; North America 18.5%; Latin America 12.8%; Africa 11% and the Middle East 6.2%. By sectors, capital goods grew by 10.5%; the automobile by 8.2% and food, beverages and tobacco by 14.1%. In the chapter on imports, capital goods gain 15.2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The automobile by 6.6% and consumer manufactures by 4.1%.
During the statistical analysis press conference, the Secretariat of State for Trade, Marisa Poncela, has ruled out that the stowage conflict affected exports. However, she stressed that we will have to wait “to see how this issue progresses”. “It’s everyone’s responsibility. Let’s not put obstacles to trade so that we can all benefit from this economic growth”, she said.